Total Points Basketball Betting
NBA totals betting is the full amount of points scored in a game by both teams. It is important to note that even if the game goes to overtime, those points are still counted when concerning the game total that will be graded by the sportsbooks. The underdog team can lose by 10 points and still cover the spread. Total: Known as the over/under, common wisdom says it is how many points oddsmakers feel will be scored in an NBA game by both.
As a fast-paced end-to-end game, basketball offers bettors an exciting way to try and make a profit. To help those who want to learn how to bet on basketball get started, we’ve explained a few basic bet types that are vital to basketball betting. Continue reading to find out more.
Money line basketball betting
Money line markets are the most common and simplest market for a bettor to understand the cost of a bet. This form of basketball betting is simply placing money on a certain team to win the game. For example, look at these money line odds for Boston Celtics vs. Utah Jazz:
In this example, the Utah Jazz (1.364) are the favourites to beat the Celtics (3.440) at home - in American odds this would be -275 and +244. If you staked £10 on the Jazz, you would get a return of £13.64 – which includes your £10 stake. The profit would be £3.64. However, if the Celtics had won, you would win nothing and lose your £10.
If the Celtics win, your return would be £34.40 including your initial £10 stake, which would leave you a profit of £24.40.
Handicap basketball betting
Once you understand how to bet on basketball using the money line, betting on the handicap can become a valuable tool when one team is heavily favoured over their opponents. With handicap basketball betting, to counter the perceived bias in ability, bookmakers offer a handicap to level the playing field.
The handicap number (displayed as either + or – a value, such as +7.5 points) is factored into the final score to determine the game’s outcome for the purpose of the bet. This means that the handicap result is sometimes different from the actual result. For example, look at these two handicap bets:
Golden State Warriors: (+7.5) 2.050
Indiana Pacers: (-7.5) 1.862
If the Pacers won the game (100 – 96), bets on their handicap would actually lose. This is because for the purpose of this bet they started the game with -7.5pts, and therefore we have to subtract 7.5 from their final score. This makes the match outcome 92.5 – 96 in the Warriors’ favour.
If the Pacers won 104-96, the adjusted handicap result is 96.5-96, which means the Pacers still win. This is referred to as “covering the handicap”.
Totals basketball betting
Totals betting (also known as Over/Under) is a bet on whether the combined points scored in a game will be over or under a set number. For example, look at the totals odds for the Sacramento Kings vs. Miami Heat below:
Over 210.5: 1.962
Under 210.5: 2.110
If you bet £10 on the game to be over 210.5 points, and the result was 116-98 (an aggregate total of 214 points), you would make a return of £19.62 (£9.62 profit). If you had backed the total score as under 210.5 with the odds of 2.110, you would have lost the bet.
Nba Basketball Betting
Despite this article outlining the basic forms of basketball betting, giving a solid grounding in understanding how to bet on basketball, there are more advanced bet types that can be implemented now you know how to bet on basketball.
Money Line betting video explainer
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The NBA remains one of the most popular leagues for anyone who loves to bet on sports. However, records have shown that much of the action the NBA generates with the sportsbooks remains on the betting line or spread for the games. If you are not including wagers on the 'over/under' which is also referred to as the total line as part of your overall NBA betting strategy, you are missing out on a golden opportunity to build your bankroll.
The basic starting point for handicapping any matchup for a play on the total line has to start with each team's scoring potential as well as the average amount of points they allow on the other end of the court. Certain teams in the NBA are notorious for scoring a ton of points a night, but they are also near the top of the list when it comes to average points allowed.
Looking back at the scoring results for the 2013/2014 regular season the Los Angeles Clippers led the league in scoring with an average of 107.9 points per game, but they also allowed an average of 101.0 PPG. While the Oddsmakers would have obviously adjusted their total lines based on these averages, the total still went OVER in 44 of their 82 games, which is almost 54 percent of the time.
The results were even more dramatic for the Chicago Bulls on the UNDER line. The total stayed UNDER in 48 of 82 games (59 percent) after they led the NBA in fewest points allowed (91.8) while ranking last in scoring with 93.7 PPG. No matter how low the Oddsmakers set the total line in Bulls' games the majority of them still stayed UNDER.
Season scoring averages are good for painting the overall picture, but drilling down to a team's current form will give you much better insight for trying to predict future results. Even the worst teams in the league will go through cycles where they are scoring more than their average while playing much better on the defensive end. Betting trends tend to come and go as the season grinds on, but by paying close attention to a team's current playing form can lead to a profitable run on the total line that last several games.
There are certain statistics that are important to handicapping the total line beyond points scored and points allowed. The first two are offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, which measures how many points a team scores (offense) or allows (defense) per 100 possessions. These stats go hand-in-hand with the measure of a team's overall pace, which is a formula that calculates how many possessions a team averages a game. Together, a team's offensive efficiency and its pace can often times be a good predictor of how many points it may score in comparison to their opponent's defensive efficiency.
There are a number of other factors that go into handicapping NBA totals including pertinent injuries, a team's fatigue level and its overall motivation. Injuries can play a huge role in how a team's coach will approach a game. If a team's top scorer is out of the lineup, a coach may try and fill the void with a change in defensive strategy, which would work to keep the scoring low. He could also go in a whole other direction by trying and fill the void with bench players that have an opportunity to light it up.
Fatigue will come into play during an extended road trip or by playing multiple games in a short amount of time. Once you get into the second half of the regular season, you have to be aware of teams tanking games through a lack of effort on defense. This can lead to some high-scoring blowouts in a mismatch.
How To Bet Total Points
The final tip when handicapping NBA totals is to create a complete profile of a team in terms of everything covered above for when they are playing at home and playing on the road. For some NBA teams the difference could be night and day, which in turn, will have a dramatic impact on scoring depending on where the game is played.